Ross Parker

my personal homepage and blog

Tag: stocks

Why do value and momentum strategies work?

by Ross

I’ve just read a really interesting pre-publication paper from Dimitri Vayanos and Paul Woolley called “New Light on Choice of Investment Strategy”. It’s available online. It aims to explain the ability for momentum and value investment strategies to generate returns, while retaining the assumption of rationality. It does this largely by discussing intermediation. It seems a smart addition to the debate in this area, and a useful input to the work I’m doing in support of the Kay Review.

Reappraisal?

by Ross

Was I too hasty in defending AIM? A couple of discussion I have had in the last week have made me a little more critical. I have also read this recent paper:

…We find that AIM firms perform poorly on a variety of dimensions. Their post-listing returns significantly underperform stocks on other exchanges. Liquidity is low and there is evidence of substantial information asymmetry. Results are similar across subsets of firms including US firms that directly list on AIM, firms that cross list, and domestic listings. AIM firms do not appear to distinguish themselves through choice of Nomad. Failure rates are very high and there is no evidence that significant numbers develop into “highfliers” or graduate to better exchanges. AIM stocks even underperform stocks that trade on the unregulated “Pink Sheets” in the US, inconsistent with a significant bonding effect of AIM listing.

Room for improvement then, and good reminder to me not to be complacent.

In defence of AIM

by Ross

I’ve previously mentioned my support of the petition to end the prohibition on AIM stocks being held in ISAs. The most frequent argument I have had back is that AIM stocks are of poor quality. Clearly there are some poor quality AIM stocks. What of the average quality? This is from the abstract of a working paper Ulf Nielsson of the University of Copenhagen:

…This study, however, shows that these small firms listing on the relatively less regulated AIM market are of similar quality level as firms listing in the U.S. and in continental Europe. Consistent with this result, the failure rate among AIM listed firms is the same as that of other markets. Interestingly, they also raise relatively more capital and have a higher market valuation. Overall, even though high regulation standards may appease investors, the paper questions whether a strict regulation environment will necessarily facilitate stock market prosperity.

This paper does not compare AIM to the Main Market, and I would be interested to see a paper that does. However, I think Nielsson does demolish the crude “AIM stocks are stinkers” line.

Discount

by Ross

Today’s offer is $20 worth of Groupon stock for $17.20. We can’t guarantee a better price tomorrow, but we’ll do our best. FT commentary here and here. Chart from ZeroHedge, a new addition to my RSS feed.

Home-bias not harmful for UK equity investors

by Ross

I don’t have access to Wiley Online Library, which is a shame, as this paper from 2009 looks very interesting. Abstract:

In spite of the popularity of international portfolio diversification theory, extant empirical literature shows that investors prefer domestic assets and as a result, many studies argue that investors’ portfolios are largely suboptimal. This paper examines whether British investors need to diversify their portfolios internationally to gain performance benefits from international markets or can they obtain these benefits by mimicking the portfolios with domestically traded assets. The results confirm that it is possible to mimic the performance of foreign equity with domestic equity. Indeed, the pay-offs from homemade portfolios outperform those from international portfolios regardless of the periodic variation in the overall performance of the UK market vis-à-vis foreign markets. The superiority of homemade portfolio is more prominent in recent years and is enhanced by the increased internationalisation of developed capital markets. Therefore, investors’ home bias is not suboptimal.

This is good news for UK investors with the smarts to compile their own portfolio, because commissions and tax breaks are much more favourable for UK trades.

Back away

by Ross

On his value investing site, Mark Carter reports some great advice from an investment board post by ‘F958B’. It’s worth repeating:

Investors are not required to have a buy/hold/sell opinion for every share in the market. If in doubt – leave it alone: take no action: do not short it: do not buy it. It can’t go wrong then. Nowadays, we see periodic opportunities to invest in good businesses at sensible prices. There is no need to get involved with falling knives.

Sure, you have a strong, decisive mind. That’s why you’re a value investor. Choosing to leave something alone is a strong decision. If you’re not sure, back away.

Hill & Smith Holdings

by Ross

At first glance, Hill & Smith Holdings (LON:HILS), a manufacturer of galvanized steel parts, looks quite attractive. Clockwork dividend. P/E ratio under 10. So I looked a little further. It appears that they have about 60% leverage. Just like Plastics Capital (LON:PLA) which I looked at yesterday, their shares are trading at a 50% premium to book, despite having a large amount of intangible assets (~30%) on the balance sheet. The big difference between the two firms is the dividend at Hill, although for me that is counterbalanced by the relatively weak prospects for strong growth in infrastructure and building markets. Hill & Smith doesn’t look like a bad company, but I’m not convinced the share price has anywhere to go – and I can do better than the 4% dividend yield elsewhere. So, again, not for me.

Turbotec Products

by Ross

Last week I bought into Turbotec Products (LON:TRBO), a US manufacturer of twisted heat transfer pipes that is listed on AIM. It was my first foray into the markets for at least a year.

I like the look of the business, which has been profitable through the recession, and now shows signs of growth. I also liked the price. Using its interim balance sheet, the company has net assets of $11,362,000. Take off $313,000 intangibles and convert the net tangible asset value to sterling (at £0.643227:$1) and you get £7.1m. To get the most conservative value estimate, I divided that figure by the fully diluted number of shares (13,514,554). This gives a company worth at least 53p per share. I bought at 29p.

Munger’s advice

by Ross

Charlie Munger advises small investors:

Don’t go after large areas. Don’t try to figure out if Merck‘s pipeline is better than Pfizer’s. It’s too hard. Go to where there are market inefficiencies. You need an edge. To succeed, you need to go where the competition is low.

More here.

Lessons about investing

by Ross

Very slowly, I am learning about investment and investing. I do believe that investing requires learning: I am firmly in the ‘value’ school. From the various books I have read and people to whom I have spoken, this is the wisdom I have distilled to date, with sources and my subsequent embellishments.

  1. Never invest what you can’t afford to lose. From Caleb Loom, my grandfather. You need an income, and you need shelter. Don’t do anything that jeopardises this. Your investment baseline should not be zero, nor should you consider all your assets as part of your portfolio.
  2. Invest on the basis of fundamental value. From Benjamin Graham. Every system is phoney, every day-trader a gambler. Patience is not only a virtue, but a competitive advantage.
  3. Diversification reduces your potential for large losses, but also your potential for large gains. From Warren Buffett (who put it more succinctly, “When your advisor tells you to diversify, he’s telling you he doesn’t know what he’s talking about”). Note that (as John Kay would argue) diversification is the best way to ensure modest growth – but by prioritising the need for diversifying your portfolio, you are adding another reason to buy a stock: for the sake of diversity. This is one reason too many. The only reason you should have is because it’s a good stock.
  4. Hammer down your investment costs. From John Kay. Fees and charges eat your return. Buy and sell smartly – take advantage of deals, buy in bulk. Try for a maximum 1% annual overhead.

I hope to learn much, much more, but this isn’t a bad start.