The economics of NINJa

The Business Environment Unit (BEU) is no more. I now work in the New Industry, New Jobs Directorate (NINJa). According to this excellent paper:

…the ninja were but one manifestation of fierce and extensive resistance to encroaching armies in the dying years of medieval Japan…. [they] armed themselves with simple weapons and guerrilla techniques…

Not a bad fit to my new unit. However:

…the ninja and the communities they defended were eventually slaughtered or intimidated into quiescence by the powerful armies of the “unifiers” like Oda Nobunaga and Toyotomi Hideyoshi in the 16th century.

Not the best omen.

Traffic and Braess’s Paradox

The Christian Science Monitor‘s Bright Green Blog picks up an interesting paper on closing roads, traffic and Braess’s Paradox.

..when individual drivers seek the quickest route, they sometimes end up slowing things down for everybody.

GPS must add to this problem, especially on models that don’t dynamically adjust for traffic. Even with models that do, the Nash equilibrium may be sub-optimal.

I have not come across Braess’s Paradox before. It worries me. Most government intervention is built on the idea of ‘market failure’. A BP situation looks like the ultimate market failure, and could thus be an open door for additional regulation. Some of this would be good, if paternalist (a la Nudge). I worry that some may be bad, in freedom terms (i.e. planners get to override GPS updates).

The saving grace is that regulation to enforce the optimal outcome may be more costly that the gap between the optimal outcome and the Nash equilibrium.

Storks’ Tower Tempranillo-Shiraz

A small round label on the front of this bottle of rosé boasts that Robert Parker awarded it 87 points. That’s a long way up the critic’s 100-point register for a bottle that leaves you with change from a fiver. I can see why. It appears Mr Parker and I share a taste in rosé as well as a surname and an initial.

This wine is unusually rounded. Missing is the zangy, tangy, acid sweetness of many cheap pinks. Instead you get a smooth, clear but full-bodied taste; dry but not arid, flavoursome but not boisterous.

That this wine can still be grown, bottled, shipped and sold for so little (especially after our lords and masters have taken their £2.20-odd in duty and tax) is a tribute to the glory of the market economy and proof certain that value and quality are not natural opponents.

Storks’ Tower Tempranillo-Shiraz, 750ml screw-cap, currently £4.26 at Tesco, online (by the case) and in-store

Credit cards less lucrative for consumers

On the back of a general crackdown on credit card benefits, American Express have just changed the cashback rates on their Platinum credit card. Running the numbers, the new rebate schedule looks like this:

AmEx rebate

You now need to spend £4.5k per year to make the card pay. This is quite difficult if you play multiple cards off against each other, especially given that AmEx are probably the least widely accepted (after Diners’ Club?). I think that these changes will lose them a lot of smarter customers: good for them, bad for me. Note also the new £20 dormancy charge. Putting the card in the back of the wallet is not an option.

The current debate: what good is money?

Will Wilkinson seems to have sparked off an interesting debate on the value of money, which I picked up thanks to The Economist‘s Free Exchange blog. I should really read Will’s blog directly, but although the posts are generally high quality, they are too long for my blog-browsing habits, so I dip in only when interesting questions here are picked up elsewhere.

The interesting question in this case is:

Suppose you made a million dollars last year and put all but $50,000 of it in a shoebox. Now imagine you lose the box. What good did the $950,000 do you?

I have spent only ten minutes thinking about this, but I would evaluate access to cash as having ‘real option value’. In other words, the value of the shoebox is the value of the options it gives you: to retire, to start a new business, to travel the world.

This real option value will vary from person to person. $950k won’t increase the real options available to Bill Gates, but it would make much more of a difference to the options open to me (even at $1.70 to £1). Therefore, I figure that the value of money to an individual will vary in real option terms.

Real options will have value, even unexercised. That’s why people pay more for flexible travel tickets. As such, the money in the box has value… up to the point you lose it. Afterwards, no value. However, I don’t think the eventual loss of the box means that it was never worth anything. Okay so the money was sitting in the box, but it wasn’t doing nothing. Even in the box, it was storing value and holding open potential options – that is the unglamourous job of money. Its loss matters.

Assorted links

In the absence of anything hugely insightful to say after a very enjoyable long weekend (partially) in the beautiful Southwold, some assorted trivia:

As you will have noted, there is no theme.